The rise of Organized Retail Crime: 2025 trends and predictions for 2026

Organized Retail Crime (ORC) continues to escalate, posing significant challenges for retailers worldwide. In the U.S., shoplifting incidents have surged by 93% since 2019, with a 14% year-over-year increase in 2024 alone, according to the National Retail Federation's 2024 report. This alarming trend underscores the urgent need for retailers to adopt advanced strategies to combat these evolving threats.

Key ORC Trends of 2025

1. Advanced Criminal Tactics

As noted by the NRF, criminal networks are employing sophisticated methods, leveraging technology to coordinate thefts and evade detection. Ai-driven surveillance systems are increasingly utilized to counter these threats, enabling real-time detection of suspicious activities.

2. Legal Loopholes Exploited

In several jurisdictions, thefts under certain monetary thresholds (often $1,000) are not prosecuted as felonies. According to the Brennan Center for Justice, these legal loopholes are frequently exploited by organized groups, leading to repeat offenses that cumulatively result in significant losses.

3. Targeting High-Value Items

Retailers report an uptick in thefts of high-value goods like electronics and designer apparel. DealAid notes that these targeted thefts are a primary contributor to the rising costs associated with retail shrink.

4. Coordinated Multi-Store Thefts

Organized groups are increasingly coordinating thefts across multiple stores and regions, complicating efforts to track and prevent such activities. According to a Congressional Research Service report, these collaborative efforts among ORC groups have amplified the complexity of combating retail crime.

5. Rising Violence and Safety Concerns

Beyond financial losses, ORC incidents have led to increased violence, endangering employees and customers. Retailers report a significant rise in aggression during theft attempts, highlighting the need for robust security measures.

Predictions for ORC in 2026

Digital Coordination Intensifies

ORC groups are expected to further leverage digital tools for planning and executing thefts. Retailers must adopt advanced technological solutions to effectively counter these digitally coordinated crimes.

Enhanced Retailer Collaboration

Combating ORC requires retailers to share information and strategies. Collaborative efforts, including data sharing and joint security initiatives, are crucial for addressing these challenges. 

AI Adoption in Security Measures

The adoption of Ai-driven surveillance systems is projected to grow significantly. These systems offer enhanced capabilities to detect and prevent organized theft activities, making them essential tools for 2026.

How i3 International Can Help Prepare for 2026

At i3 International, we specialize in addressing ORC through advanced Ai-driven solutions:

• i3Ai Sentry: Utilizes facial recognition technology to identify and monitor repeat offenders, enabling proactive theft prevention.
• Trajectory Anomaly Detection: Analyzes movement patterns within retail environments to detect unusual behaviors indicative of potential theft, allowing for timely intervention.
• Comprehensive Incident Reporting: Provides detailed reporting capabilities, facilitating trend analysis and supporting collaboration with law enforcement agencies.
• Proactive Loss Prevention: Real-time alerts and anomaly detection empower retailers to act swiftly, minimizing losses and enhancing overall security.

Conclusion

As ORC tactics continue to evolve, it is imperative for retailers to adopt proactive and technologically advanced strategies. i3 International's leading Ai-driven solutions are designed to equip businesses with the tools necessary to effectively combat these challenges, ensuring a safer and more secure retail environment.